The Career Apocalypse Facing Gen Z: Tech Layoffs, DOGE's Ripple Effect & AI Disruption

The Great Career Bait-and-Switch: Why Today's Graduates Were Prepared for a World That Disappeared

I read a great piece this morning from Aki Ito at Business Insider that reveals how government cuts are decimating opportunities far beyond federal jobs. It got me thinking about the challenges facing today's graduates. If you subscribe to Business Insider - which I recommend, you can read complete piece here - https://bit.ly/4ceO47d

The Article: Key Points

Ito's article tracks the story of Ryan Kim, a college senior who initially planned for a career in tech—first as a database manager, then as a fintech business analyst. But as tech companies laid off nearly half a million workers during his sophomore and junior years, Kim pivoted to what seemed safer: public service and government work.

This wasn't just Kim's strategy. According to Handshake data cited in the article, applications from college seniors to tech jobs dropped 19% from 2022, while government job applications nearly doubled. Even high school students' preferences shifted dramatically—with the FBI and NASA ranking higher than Google and Apple as desired employers.

Kim landed a yearlong paid internship at the FDA with good performance reviews and planned to stay after graduation. But then came DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), and his internship was abruptly terminated with government hiring now on indefinite hold.

The article explains how the problem extends far beyond direct government employment:

"It's not just government positions that are taking a hit — it's jobs at a whole host of businesses, nonprofits, and universities that rely on federal funding and contracts."

This cascading effect means that students who pivoted to adjacent sectors like nonprofits, educational institutions, or government contractors are also seeing opportunities vanish. Career services professionals quoted in the piece express unprecedented concern. Saskia Campbell from George Mason University states: "This is the first year I'm actually concerned." The outlook appears likely to worsen as Trump's tariff wars cause companies to delay hiring decisions.

A Generation Forced to Grow Up Too Fast

What struck Ito—and what jumps out to me as well—is the weary pragmatism these young people display. The article quotes Tulane sophomore Katie Schwartz:

"It's less about finding a job you really love now and more just about finding a job that's going to give you job stability."

Ito reflects on this maturity:

"I'm impressed by the clear-eyed pragmatism of these students — but I'm also saddened by how old they sound. Isn't job stability what you look for when you're middle-aged, with a mortgage to pay and kids to support?"

Another student profiled in the piece has been systematically neglecting her schooling to send out 15 job applications daily. She landed her "dream job" with a government contractor but is now considering reneging to take a finance position instead, simply for stability. Her sobering assessment:

"We're not going to live the same quality of life our parents provided us."

Lasting Damage from Bad Timing

The most alarming part of Ito's reporting involves research on the long-term impacts of graduating during economic downturns. She notes that five years after the Great Recession, millennials were earning 11% less than Gen Xers at comparable ages, with net worth 40% lower.

Even more disturbing are the findings about graduates from the 1982 recession, who ended up with "fewer kids and more divorces than those who entered better job markets." Most shocking: "they were more likely to die early."

As Ito points out, the greatest casualties of economic upheaval are often those who don't yet have jobs to lose—the young people who can't get their foot in the door in the first place.

My Thoughts: The Triple Threat Nobody's Discussing

While Ito's article brilliantly captures the DOGE-related government cuts and their impact on top of tech layoffs, there's a critical third force creating this perfect storm: the AI revolution that's rapidly transforming what skills have market value.

The students in this article are facing a triple threat:

1. Tech industry volatility: Half a million layoffs have already closed that traditional avenue for ambitious graduates

2. Government instability: DOGE cuts eliminated the "safe" fallback option that many had strategically pivoted toward

3. AI-driven obsolescence: Many entry-level positions these students trained for are being automated away, making parts of their expensive education obsolete before they even graduate

The story of Ryan Kim is particularly revealing. His initial plan to become a database manager or fintech analyst targeted roles that AI systems are increasingly capable of performing. The cruel irony is that even his "safe" pivot to government work has been undermined partly because those same AI technologies are being deployed to "improve efficiency" in federal agencies.

What troubles me most is that our educational institutions continue teaching as if the career landscape of 2015 still exists. Students are accumulating massive debt for knowledge that may have diminishing returns in an AI-accelerated economy. The four-year degree model wasn't designed for a world where the half-life of professional skills keeps shrinking.

A Parent's Perspective: Rethinking My High School Junior's Future

As the parent of a junior in high school, this article has me deeply concerned. The traditional advice I was planning to give my teen and I kinda gave my 20 year old now seems (and is) dangerously outdated. If today's college seniors did "everything right" and still face such bleak prospects, what should my child be doing differently?

Here are a few things I am thinking and I hope are helpful":

1. The ROI of a traditional four-year degree. With student loan debt at record highs and the shelf-life of technical skills shrinking, is a $200,000+ investment in a conventional degree still the best path? Should we be looking at alternative credentials, specialized bootcamps, or degree programs with built-in work experience?

2. Career path flexibility over specialization. Ryan Kim's story shows how quickly a seemingly sensible career path can collapse. Instead of encouraging early specialization, perhaps we should focus on developing transferable skills and the ability to pivot quickly as conditions change.

3. International options. Other countries offer more affordable education and different economic opportunities. Should my teen be considering education or early career experiences abroad to develop global perspective and create more options?

4. The value of practical experience over academic achievement. That student who neglected studies to send 15 applications daily might have the right idea. Should my teen be prioritizing internships, work experience, and portfolio development over GPA and academic honors?

5. Entrepreneurial skills as essential, not optional. In a world where traditional employment paths are increasingly unstable, the ability to create your own opportunities becomes crucial. How can I help my teen develop entrepreneurial thinking and self-reliance?

6. AI literacy and human-AI collaboration skills. The jobs least threatened by automation require either deeply human skills AI can't replicate or the ability to effectively collaborate with AI systems. How can my teen develop both?

The most unsettling aspect of reading this article is realizing how rapidly the landscape is changing. The career preparation advice that worked even five years ago may be setting today's teens up for disappointment.

As parents, we need to be willing to question our assumptions about what "success" looks like and be open to paths we never considered for ourselves.

What We Should Be Thinking (and Doing)

We need an urgent national conversation about how to:

1. Redesign education to be more adaptable to rapidly changing skill requirements

2. Create meaningful entry points to careers that AI can't easily replace

3. Establish new forms of economic security that don't depend solely on traditional employment

This is precisely why I've decided to start teaching in the fall of 2025. I believe we need to bridge the gap between traditional education and the rapidly evolving realities of work. By stepping into the classroom, I hope to help shape a curriculum that better prepares students for this new landscape—one that emphasizes adaptability, AI literacy, and the deeply human skills that will remain valuable regardless of technological change.

The traditional path from education to career is breaking down before our eyes. Gen Z is simply the ones that are feeling it, warning us of a structural transformation that will eventually affect us all. Rather than just writing about these challenges, I want to be part of creating solutions.

What's your take? Are you seeing these impacts on younger colleagues or family members? How should we rethink education and early career development in an AI-accelerated economy? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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About Jason Averbook
Jason Averbook is a globally recognized thought leader in Digital HR Strategy, Generative AI, and the future of work—named one of the Top 25 Human Capital and Work Thought Leaders in the world. With over two decades guiding the HR tech evolution, Jason champions shifting from simply executing technology projects to truly embodying a digital mindset. He’s authored two influential books, founded Leapgen, and regularly inspires global audiences as a speaker, advisor, and educator.

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